Reliance Industries Limited (Reliance Share) has been facing a rough patch in the stock market. The stock price recently hit a 15-month low, breaking below a critical support level for the first time since 2014. Investors and traders are now concerned: could the Reliance share fall another 20% from here? Let’s analyze the technical indicators and potential movement in the coming months.
Reliance Share Price: The Current Scenario
At present, Reliance share is struggling at Rs 1,167, significantly below its key moving averages. The stock has dropped 8.5% since the end of January and is down 28.2% from its all-time high of Rs 1,609 in July 2024. With increasing bearish signals, traders are watching closely to determine if this downtrend will continue.
Breaking Below a Key Trend Line for the First Time in 11 Years
A major concern for investors is that Reliance share has slipped below its monthly super trend line support for the first time since April 2014. This key level stood at Rs 1,200, and the fact that the stock has remained below it for two consecutive sessions is an alarming sign. If Reliance share closes below this level for the month, it could signal the end of an 11-year-long uptrend.
Reliance Stock at a Crucial Inflection Point
Right now, Reliance share is at a major crossroads. The technical indicators suggest a continued downtrend unless the stock manages to reclaim Rs 1,260. Below this level, the stock remains vulnerable to further declines.
Key Support Levels:
- Rs 1,135
- Rs 1,107
- Rs 1,000
Key Resistance Levels:
- Rs 1,175
- Rs 1,260
How Low Can Reliance Share Go?
Given the bearish setup, Reliance share could continue to slide lower. Currently, the stock is approaching the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the monthly scale, which sits around Rs 1,065. However, if selling pressure persists, the stock may test its 100-MMA (Monthly Moving Average), which could mean a potential dip to Rs 935—marking a downside risk of 19.9% from current levels.
Could Reliance Share Hit a 4-Year Low?
If Reliance share falls to Rs 935, it would be trading at levels last seen 46 months ago—essentially a 4-year low. This is a crucial level to watch, as a further breach could open doors for even deeper corrections.
Market Sentiment and What Investors Should Watch For
- Investor Sentiment: Market participants remain cautious, and continued bearish momentum could lead to panic selling.
- Earnings Reports: Upcoming earnings announcements will play a key role in determining whether the stock can recover.
- Overall Market Trend: If the broader market recovers, Reliance share’s could find some support, but if negative sentiment prevails, expect further downside.
Final Thoughts: Is This a Buying Opportunity or a Warning Sign?
For long-term investors, a significant dip in Reliance share might seem like a buying opportunity. However, from a short-term trading perspective, caution is advised. The stock is currently in a clear downtrend, and unless it reclaims Rs 1,260, further downside is likely.
Traders should closely monitor key levels and volume trends before making any decisions. With the stock trading below critical support, the market will be watching closely to see whether Reliance share’s can find a floor or if further declines are on the horizon.
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Conclusion
The next few weeks will be crucial for Reliance share as it tests major support levels. A failure to hold above Rs 1,135 could push the stock down toward Rs 1,000 and even Rs 935. Investors should stay vigilant and keep an eye on key technical indicators before making any moves.